Rare Earth Hypothesis vs. Reason

As you probably have gleaned from the title of this post, I disagree with the Rare Earth hypothesis-- that is, the theory that the spectacular coincidences and conditions that led to complex (not even necessarily intelligent) life on this planet is so statistically remote that it is extremely unlikely that any other planet in the universe has evolved complex life. The term (and hypothesis) comes from a book by Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee.

Now, I have not read this book, and therefore I am not fully versed in their arguments. I plan to read the book and make a more detailed argument, but I wanted to lay down my base hypothesis first. Also, Wikipedia does an ok job at summarizing their argument.

So, before we get to their equation, let's look over some data:

• It is estimated that there are 200-400 billion stars in the Milky Way Galaxy.
• It is estimated that there are about 100 billion (10¹¹) galaxies in the universe.
• Galaxies tend to contain between ten million (10⁷) and one trillion (10¹²) stars.

Now let's crunch those numbers. With simple math, we can conclude that the average galaxy has 10^9.5 stars. So, to calculate the total number of stars in the universe we need 10¹¹ * 10^9.5, which gives us, with rounding, 10²⁰ stars. (That's 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 stars.) That's a lot. If each star was the size of a tennis ball, stacked up they could reach the moon from the earth (avg. distance) almost 17.5 million times.

Now let's make some guesses. In the famous Drake Equation, it is estimated that half of all stars will have planets. So that gives us a more manageable number of 10¹⁰ stars with planets. For the sake of argument, let's say that our solar system is fairly typical, and maybe the average number of planets in a solar system is around 6. I think I am being generous to the Rare Earth-ists here, as a solar system could easily have tens of planets, not to mention life-supporting moons. That gives us 6 * 10¹⁰ planets in the universe. Disregarding the Drake estimate of 2 planets per star supporting life, let's say that, I don't know, 1/8 of planets support complex life.

So, we have finally arrived: 60,000,000,000 planets could support life. Sixty billion seems to be far from the estimate of 1. If my estimates have an error of 99.9%, there would still be 7,492,500,000 planets supporting complex life. Of course, some of that may have died off already, and most (statistically) we would never be able to find. (If you read the numbers above, and you're good with visualization, you should already have realized the size of the haystack in which we are searching for a proverbial, uh, 60 billion needles.)

As I have said, I will in fact be making a more detailed argument later. However, I assert that the vast immensity of the universe makes the Rare Earth theory extremely unlikely, statistically. And I haven't even broached the subject of carbon-based vs. non-carbon-based life or the general assumptions of what a 'life-supporting planet' requires.

QED.

Barack Obama Deserves the Peace Prize

I, like many others, was a little surprised by the news that Barack Obama was named the winner of the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize. Many people's reaction has been, "But what has he done?"

I will tell you, in the form of the press release from the Nobel Prize Committee:

The Norwegian Nobel Committee has decided that the Nobel Peace Prize for 2009 is to be awarded to President Barack Obama for his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples. The Committee has attached special importance to Obama's vision of and work for a world without nuclear weapons.

Obama has as President created a new climate in international politics. Multilateral diplomacy has regained a central position, with emphasis on the role that the United Nations and other international institutions can play. Dialogue and negotiations are preferred as instruments for resolving even the most difficult international conflicts. The vision of a world free from nuclear arms has powerfully stimulated disarmament and arms control negotiations. Thanks to Obama's initiative, the USA is now playing a more constructive role in meeting the great climatic challenges the world is confronting. Democracy and human rights are to be strengthened.

Only very rarely has a person to the same extent as Obama captured the world's attention and given its people hope for a better future. His diplomacy is founded in the concept that those who are to lead the world must do so on the basis of values and attitudes that are shared by the majority of the world's population.

For 108 years, the Norwegian Nobel Committee has sought to stimulate precisely that international policy and those attitudes for which Obama is now the world's leading spokesman. The Committee endorses Obama's appeal that "Now is the time for all of us to take our share of responsibility for a global response to global challenges."

So, in the words of the committee itself, they awarded the Peace Prize to Mr. Obama for making substantial gains in the diplomatic process, giving people hope, and beginning work towards various peaceful goals, including nuclear disarmament.

Let me step away from achievements, for a moment, to answer another fast criticism of this award. Many have pointed out that the nominations for this prize were due to be postmarked by Feb. 1st, 2009, exactly 12 days after the President took office. So, people have concluded (erroneously) that Mr. Obama received this award before taking virtually any steps as President of the United States. I would like to point out to the world that a nomination is only a nomination. Obviously, someone had high hopes for what Mr. Obama could accomplish in this year, and yes, maybe they submitted the nomination for political reasons. However, I assert that the Nobel Prize Committee is not peopled by idiots or fanboys. I have extremely high respect for their organization, and I hope that you do too.

The Nobel Peace Prize, from the will of Mr. Nobel himself, is to be given to "the person who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses." The Prize committee, in making its decision, was looking into the last 8 months of the presidency, and not the first 12 days. There were very many nominations for this prize, in fact the most nominations ever. I assert that if they believed that Mr. Obama had not made progress promoting "fraternity between nations" etc. they would have picked one of the other 204 nominees. The list is secret for the next 50 years, but I think we can trust there were some good names on it.

So, has President Obama signed a large peace accord, as President Wilson did before winning the 1919 Nobel Peace Prize? No. Did he help to negotiate peace between two major countries at war, as President Roosevelt did to win the 1906 Nobel Peace Prize? No. I believe, however, that he has made great strides in promoting "fraternity between nations," at the least.

In very short order, President Obama changed the foreign policy of the United States from strong-arm unilateralism to broad-based diplomacy. He immediately appointed important envoys and began new peace talks, including being the first President to open meaningful peace talks with Iran, which, although rocky and far from over, have dramatically improved the relationship between our countries. He made steps to bring our country back under the codes of conduct laid out in the Geneva Convention. He restarted nuclear disarmament talks with Russia, this time, unlike his predecessors, negotiating for a stronger reduction. He paid our debt to and reopened meaningful interaction with the United Nations. And he told the world that not only would we not take unilateral actions, but that we also require the aid of other countries in order to move forward towards peace and disarmament.

Perhaps, in this great century, the people need a flashy achievement. The 2009 Physics Prize, essentially awarded for the invention of fiber optic communication, is pretty cool, as well as immediately tangible. Peace, however, is rarely flashy. Peace is shaped through long negotiation, nurtured by building trusting relationships with sovereign nations, and enacted through policy change.

I do not deny the unbelievable work of people who, every day, all over the world, are working in immediately tangible ways to improve life and promote peace. Yes, these people are extremely deserving of praise. When you look at the wording and the purpose of this particular recognition, however, you find a description of the 'big picture.' Without belittling the work of so many, this particular prize exists for a different reason.

The Nobel Prize Committee, and the Nobel Prizes themselves, exist to encourage and inspire as much as they exist to reward notable achievements. Countless times they have been awarded for progress, and progress surely has been made.

Mr. Obama said this morning that he did not feel he deserved the prize. Mr. President, I must respectfully disagree. Your contribution to the global peace process is already irrefutable, brought forth largely from a willingness to talk and to listen, and to treat other nations with their due respect. You have brought hope to not only the millions in your country, but to billions around the world. We see you as a leader who one day may bring to this Earth a new era, and we hope. Where once we saw immovable obstacles, you have changed the international political dynamic to be a place where diplomacy and cooperation can work.

Mr. President, on behalf of myself, and others whose voices may not be heard this day, I thank you for all you have done already, and I look forward to watching you change the world.

Damn Small Linux... still foiling my install

Here's a picture of my Xybernaut MA-V previously posted about, currently hooked up to a desktop monitor. I am still trying to find a compatible HMD, but I have a lot of setup to do before I'm ready for it anyway. You can see the wrist-size keyboard there, though, which is pretty sweet.

Currently, I am attempting to install Damn Small Linux, which is giving me some trouble. The OS is designed to run on a LiveCD or USB thumb drive, etc. so getting it to reside on my hard drive is proving difficult, despite DSL having at least three separate ways to do just that. Despite having the USB external CD drive listed as my first boot device, the computer has problems booting into DSL, without which I cannot work on partitioning my hard drive for Linux, or perform the install itself. For some reason, when I ran cfdisk the first time, and thought that I had successfully partitioned the drive, I rebooted the computer to find myself back in Windows. Now, when I try to boot back into the DSL LiveCD, it isn't letting me.

For now, as I am on vacation, this project is sitting still, but when I get back to it next week, and hopefully finally get DSL running on the hard drive, I can really get started and I will definitely keep you all up to date.

Green Goods

After watching a Frontline episode about the state of water quality, I decided I needed to put more action to my thoughts and begin to revamp how I live my life, so I have been changing over to some of the new 'green' products on the market. These products fill a new and rapidly increasing market, and I have heard that some "don't do anything" and some are the next best thing. So, I thought I'd take you along on my journey by sharing my experiences with the products I have been using.

Most of these are being bought as I run out of other things, so it is in a fairly random order. Also, we all know about CFLs, and we all should be using them, so I won't bother to beat that subject to death. (Although I await consumer LED lamps with bated breath...)

Sturdi® Degradables
These trash bags come in your normal kitchen-size as well as ubiquitous black trash bag and lawn/leaf. They claim to be 100% degradable, as in, they will break down over time, mostly due to interaction with light. Not quite as cool as fully biodegradable bags would be, but a step in the right direction. These bags don't have any of those fancy 'technologies' of the bigger brands, but they are just as robust as any other trash bag I've ever used.
My rating: 5/5

TerraCycle™ All Purpose Cleaner
A great product from a great company. This cleaner works great for every day use, and is completely non-toxic and packaged in what they call "waste-stream" packaging. Essentially, your bottle of cleaner once was a liter bottle of something else, and the spray cap was a spray cap to something else as well. I have been using this to clean sticky messes up off my kitchen counter (non-toxic, remember?), and it works great, especially if you give it about 10 seconds to soak for a big mess. For example, the very first thing I used it on was a big gob of honey that had spilled down the side of my honey jar and coalesced on the counter. Being a chore to clean up, it sat there for 2-3 days (I know, I know). First I sprayed cleaner on and tried to wipe immediately to limited success, but then I sprayed a bit on, let it sit for about 15 seconds, and wiped the whole mess up with my (biodegradable) sponge in one go. The only downside is that, like other cleaners, it doesn't smell so great, but at least it isn't caustic-bleach-smell. This company also offers a bathroom cleaner that I have not yet tried.
My rating: 5/5

Scotch-Brite™ biodegradable absorbent sponges
I got these sponges to lessen the amount of paper towels I use. They pretty much seem like your average traditional sponge, except that, being made from recycled paper, they will biodegrade once I throw them away. I have found them to be dead useful, and even if they start to break apart a little sooner than their cousins (which they do), I personally don't want to keep a sponge for years anyway. You can find the whole range of products here. I have only used the above-mentioned sponges, but I plan on using the others as well.
My rating: 4/5


Ecos Free & Clear Liquid Laundry Detergent
After being a long-time Tide user, I've switched over to this detergent. I chose the free & clear version with no dyes or scents, since I think both of those are superfluous in something you are going to pour down the drain. (I don't buy detergent to look at or smell...) So far it has been working great, even on my work-shirts that get various grime, grease and dirt on them. I was always a fan of the 'bleach-alternative' Tide products, so my only disappointment is the slightly reduced function on bad stains. However, since these are probably in the minority of your laundry, grab a stain stick or spray and you should be set to go.
My rating: 4/5


Method® gel hand wash refill
Again, I chose the 'free of dyes + perfumes' (a.k.a. 'go naked') version for basically the same reason as above. Also, though, I didn't like the two other scents that were available at that particular retailer. This soap is everything you expect from a soap, and is not antibacterial, which, if you are not in a hospital, clinic, or nursing home, you probably don't need. It's another topic, but antibacterial soaps are a very, very bad thing, so trust me here. The refills also come in these sweet pouches that the manufacturer claims allows an "83% savings in plastic, water + energy." I'm all for it.
My rating: 5/5


Method® all surface wipes
Same 'go naked' version as the soap above. I like the advent of these cleaning wipes, and now I can get them in a greener version. Generally, it is better to use a reusable cloth and a bottle of spray, but sometimes you have something to clean up that you'd rather not keep around, or you need the portability the wipes offer. And at least these are "compostable" and made with eco-friendly cleaning agents. The wipes are made from bamboo, and the packaging is also minimized. Sometimes the lid can leak air a little, though, causing your wipes to begin to dry out, so make sure you snap it tight, or maybe put the bag inside another bag for long-term storage.
My rating: 4/5

That's all for now. I have a few other things I am currently using, and I plan on continuing to pursue these products further, so I will have more suggestions and reviews later on. Let me know what you think or suggest other products for me to try by leaving a comment.


Note: I have not, in any way, been reimbursed for any of these reviews by any company or person. These are purely my opinions. All product names are registered trademarks of their respective manufacturers.

Xybernaut MA-V

I recently bought a Xybernaut MA-V wearable computer off eBay, and I am working on building a wearable computer interface for everyday use. My aim is to have a wearable computer with the following capabilities:

• Monocular Head-mounted Display (HMD)
• Voice-activated functionality
• Go-anywhere web access
• Bluetooth, and functionality to tie in your cell phone while wearing the device, so that you can make/receive calls, send SMS and MMS and whatnot all from the device
• Integrated camera(s) to capture what you are seeing. Also: low-light vision (thinking IR illumination right now, versus 'real' night vision), infrared, ultraviolet, 'full-spectrum'
• A simple interface built specifically for it's purposes. Lots of voice interaction and keyboard shortcuts (for my wrist-mounted keyboard).

Some of those (general) aims are long-term, and some are shorter. (E.g. I won't be affording FLIR anytime soon.) Other functionality thoughts I will be pursuing follow:

• Advanced pattern recognition via the mounted camera. This is your classic sci-fi case of recognizing faces of people you know and offering additional information automatically. I will be pursuing smaller things first, as I am no genius AI programmer. For example, I have considered those apps that recognize UPC barcodes. With that, you could be looking at a package of something in a store and be offered additional information, such as prices at other retailers/online, manufacturer information, reviews, etc.
  
• GPS. With the above, you could combine these to create a function that gives you the menu, hours, and phone number of the restaurant you just looked at (pattern-recognition on sign, plus gps location, plus google maps/earth). You could also tweet a thought, a picture of what you are seeing, and your exact location at the time ("Look at that great sunset.").
• Enhanced memory/knowledge. E.g.: Storage of the video footage from the mounted camera for the past X amount of time.. allows 'instant-replay' functionality for your life, basically. You could also save something you just saw for later reference or for posting online. E.g.: Built in and quick access to reference materials, like Wikipedia, dictionaries, ebooks, etc. That way, when Harriet Bosse comes up in conversation, you know exactly who people are talking about.
• Enhanced vision. As stated above, I would like to implement various camera systems, including low-light vision, infrared, ultraviolet, 'full-spectrum,' etc. The added insights into the world around you gained by these additional filters would be interesting, at the least. It's difficult to even speculate, but imagine seeing temperatures around you. It's a type of ambient computing that I believe would be valuable. Digital zooming would also be very useful.
  

These are just the beginning, and as I progress through this project I expect my aims and goals to evolve. If you have ideas, feel free to leave a comment.

The MA-V came preloaded with Windows 2000, but the only preloaded software (other than the OS package) was a battery meter, which is easily replaced. I asked friends for suggestions for a small Linux distribution, which led me to Damn Small Linux (DSL). It looks like a great distro for my project, so in the coming days I will be testing it out, and I will continue updating you on my progress on this project.